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bad_cmpanyЧто-то захотелось поискать себе другую планету пока все утрясется.
1. Russia will collapse ...
"There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation."
Sanctions, declining oil prices, a plunging ruble, rising military expenses, and increasing internal discord will weaken the hold of Russia's central government over the world's largest country. Russia will not officially split into multiple countries, but Moscow's power may loosen to the point that Russia will effectively become a string of semi-autonomous regions that might not even get along with one another.
"We expect Moscow's authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia" the report states, adding, "It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form."
2. and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.
Russia's nuclear-weapons infrastructure is spread across a vast geographic area. If the political disintegration Stratfor predicts ever happens, it means that weapons, fissile materials, and delivery systems could end up exposed in what will suddenly become the world's most dangerous power vacuum.
The breakout of Russia's nuclear weapons stockpile will be "the greatest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.
And the US will have to figure out what to do about it, even if it means dispatching ground troops to secure loose weapons, materials, and missiles.
"Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process," the Decade Forecast states. "The United States will either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles over time."
И так далее https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025
1. Russia will collapse ...
"There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments of the Russian Federation."
Sanctions, declining oil prices, a plunging ruble, rising military expenses, and increasing internal discord will weaken the hold of Russia's central government over the world's largest country. Russia will not officially split into multiple countries, but Moscow's power may loosen to the point that Russia will effectively become a string of semi-autonomous regions that might not even get along with one another.
"We expect Moscow's authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia" the report states, adding, "It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form."
2. and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.
Russia's nuclear-weapons infrastructure is spread across a vast geographic area. If the political disintegration Stratfor predicts ever happens, it means that weapons, fissile materials, and delivery systems could end up exposed in what will suddenly become the world's most dangerous power vacuum.
The breakout of Russia's nuclear weapons stockpile will be "the greatest crisis of the next decade," according to Stratfor.
And the US will have to figure out what to do about it, even if it means dispatching ground troops to secure loose weapons, materials, and missiles.
"Washington is the only power able to address the issue, but it will not be able to seize control of the vast numbers of sites militarily and guarantee that no missile is fired in the process," the Decade Forecast states. "The United States will either have to invent a military solution that is difficult to conceive of now, accept the threat of rogue launches, or try to create a stable and economically viable government in the regions involved to neutralize the missiles over time."
И так далее https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025
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Date: 2015-12-25 05:14 pm (UTC)это вообще-то довольно очевидно, но у них еще есть вариант удариться в чучхе
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Date: 2015-12-25 05:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-12-25 05:26 pm (UTC)хотя конечно после 2014 года нельзя сказать, что они неправы в корне
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Date: 2015-12-25 06:11 pm (UTC)Ten years ago, STRATFOR said Russia would regain lost parts of its empire by 2005. Or mistake was taking for granted that the Russian people and leadership at the time would have the political will to do so. Russia remained capable of attaining its former greatness — despite the fall of the Soviet Union — but the desire to use its capabilities never materialized. Russia's moderately pro-Western leadership for the past decade — under former President Boris Yeltsin and during the early years of President Vladimir Putin's regime — has driven the country toward the West, and the Russian people have tolerated this course so far, albeit grudgingly.
In 2000, STRATFOR said that, by 2010, Russia would re-emerge and reclaim its former territories, beginning with the Baltics and Georgia; return the Russian army to the Polish and Romanian borders; and cooperate with China to block the United States. As of 2005, we have again been wrong — and for the same reasons. Until now, Russian and Chinese leaders have thought they could gain more by cooperating with Washington than with each other.
..........
STRATFOR believes our forecast from five years ago will come true, if not by 2010 then by 2015. We base this belief on objective reasons, such as the hard geopolitical realities Russia has faced for hundreds of years. Pro-Western governments' content with supporting roles in a U.S.-dominated world might come and go, but Russia and its inevitable geopolitical challenges remain.
However, we think Russia will preserve — or restore — its territorial integrity and sovereignty and again become a major international player with a traditional anti-Western geopolitical course. The main geopolitical threat to Russia this coming decade comes from the U.S.-led West, which threatens Russia more than all other players combined, so it will be against the West that Russia responds.
https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2005-2015
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Date: 2015-12-25 10:45 pm (UTC)- бетонировать шахты точечными плевками из космоса? Или "Taiga Seals Mission"?
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Date: 2015-12-26 06:11 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-12-26 08:16 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-12-27 12:54 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-12-26 02:28 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-12-26 06:08 am (UTC)